U.S. intelligence officials assert that little to no fentanyl trafficked into the United States originates in Venezuela, directly contradicting the Trump administration’s public justification for its aggressive posture toward the Nicolás Maduro government. A senior official noted that boats targeted by U.S. strikes often lack the capacity even to reach U.S. waters.

Despite this intelligence, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a long-time proponent of regime change, successfully persuaded President Trump to reframe the conflict around unsubstantiated claims of Maduro’s narcoterrorism. This argument resonated with Trump’s personal distaste for drugs and his stalled plans to target Mexican cartels. The potential to secure Venezuela’s vast oil reserves provided a further economic impetus. Trump recently rejected a direct offer from Maduro to cede oil resources in exchange for peace, swayed by Rubio’s argument that a friendlier post-coup government would offer a better deal.

To advance this goal, Rubio has redirected millions of dollars originally allocated for “pro-democracy” programs through USAID toward military preparations. This includes a surge of contracts in neighboring Colombia for combat boats, a virtual shooting range, and energy resource consulting. The administration’s “Gang of Five,” including Rubio, drives this foreign policy, with Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth eagerly executing the strategy through lethal strikes and public rhetoric comparing the drug war to the conflicts against ISIS and Al Qaeda.

Parallel efforts involve propaganda and political subversion. The National Endowment for Democracy (NED) funds media outlets and social media campaigns against Maduro, while the CIA has attempted to recruit Venezuelan media executives as assets. These overt and covert “democracy promotion” campaigns have historically been indistinguishable, aiming to isolate the socialist government and penetrate its political base. The current administration has continued this legacy, cutting some USAID programs while preserving and redirecting funds toward its military and political objectives in the region.

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